Thursday, May 29, 2008

First Post

I'm creating this blog to document all my trading ideas and the profit/losses of my brokerage account for you to see. My hope is by doing this I will think out trades in greater detail and make fewer errors due to a lack of discipline. I'll also post and comment on interesting articles in the financial media that might lead to future trade ideas.

My total account value right now is $25,725.33. All this money is from my savings, so if I lose this stake it will be extremely painful. In order to grow this stake significantly and relatively quickly, I am willing to bet on any market using any financial instrument. I prefer using high amounts of leverage which is why I will concentrate on the futures and futures options markets.

I decide trades mostly by looking at the fundamental picture. For instance, when analyzing a hard commodity I look at basic supply and demand. When checking supply I want to know everything that is effecting worldwide current and future production. I also want to know what inventories are currently compared to past years. Looking at demand I want to understand all the factors that might shift the demand curve over the next few years.

As far as market sentiment is concerned I want to be involved in a trade before the public discovers it or it’s on the front page of my local newspaper.

I am going to use technicals to time my trades. This is a necessary evil because I don't have enough capital to wait years for my trade ideas to show a profit nor can I afford to suffer huge draw downs. I will only initiate a new long (short) position if it is above (below) its 50 day moving average. The only exceptions to this rule are extreme reversal days. An example of this would be a market trending downward then having a huge daily range to the downside on high volume and then closing up on the day.

My basic goal is to use the aforementioned techniques to catch a huge move up or down in any market and ride it as long as possible. I am looking for moves that last a month to a year that will allow me to pyramid my positions in order to maximize my gains. I am willing to suffer many small losses in search of a Grand Slam.

Here is my current account info as of 5/29/08:
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